Climate Change - Tornado and Hail

Quantifying the “New Normal” of tornado, hail and wind risk

An Emerging Risk research program and innovation industry partnership that also taps insights from government and academia.

The problem: increasing claims and repairs from tornadoes, hail and winds

The insurance claim and repair activity from tornadoes, hail and other thunderstorm winds in the US and Canada has been striking over the past five years.

Through diverse work with the North American insurance market, AER, Verisk Climate, and Verisk Analytics have observed this activity from a unique position which inspired us to dive rigorously into the related science. The data and resulting insights will shape the way each participating organization thinks about the risks from tornado, hail and thunderstorm wind hazards. Read the press release.

Research scope and results

The Emerging Risk research program delivers actionable data to our supporters, provided on an ongoing basis and built off the foundation of original, peer‐reviewed research. The scope of this climate change research initiative includes:

  • Quantify the New Normal for tornadoes, hail and thunderstorm winds
  • Understand the shifting patterns of risk related to these severe storms across North America
  • Determine whether these perils are exhibiting different frequency or severity than in the past
  • Examine whether there is evidence of local influences on storm occurrence within different parts of a city

These results will inform how insurance products might evolve in regions of severe weather events.

Research management: AER and Verisk Climate

AER’s meteorological, remote sensing and actuarial scientists are teaming with industry thought leaders to conduct an extensive analysis of thunderstorm winds, hail and tornadoes.

Industry sponsors of the Emerging Risk research program share a strong belief that objective scientific research, when put in the context of specific industry needs, can directly enhance business strategies.

The Climate Change – Tornado, Wind and Hail research program is the second project in the Emerging Risk research program managed by Verisk Climate for the insurance industry. The first research initiative, which was summarized in a report published by Lloyd's of London titled Solar Storm Risk to the North American Electrical Grid, assessed the risk of covered loss due to widespread power outages and resulted in a catalog of space weather blackout scenarios for the United States.

Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) has over 30 years of climate, weather and environment experience. Our scientists have been publishing peer-reviewed analysis of climate impacts for 33 years and contributing to government and industry initiatives.

Among AER’s staff ofmore than 150 professionals, more than half are scientists globally recognized for being at the forefront of their scientific fields. Over 85 have Ph.D.’s or advanced degrees. AER's expertise in climate change, meteorology, remote sensing, hydrology, oceanography, space, defense and atmospheric and environmental science, means the company's scientists collaborate closely with experts in government, universities and research laboratories.

More information

To join the initiative or to learn more, please contact the market coordinator for the Climate Change: Tornado and Hail research program, Patrick Pollard, or simply use the contact us web form.