Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Seasonal Forecast Calls for a Mild Winter in the West and Cold in the East

Lexington, Mass.November 13, 2006 — Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER), a leader in climate forecasting, published its winter forecast this week indicating that the eastern half of the country will experience a colder than normal winter, while the western half of the country will be warmer than normal. Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER, reported that, "...the eastern half, especially the mid- Atlantic states and Northeast will experience a cold winter. In the western US temperatures will average above normal with the greatest anomalies occurring in the southwest where temperatures will average much above normal."

Dr. Cohen, an expert in climatology and Associate Editor of the Journal of Climate, has studied the impact of global climate forecast indicators since the mid-1990's. Among other advances, his research has demonstrated a predictable linkage between the amount of snow cover over the land mass of Eurasia in the fall, and winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. This fall's Eurasian snow cover is one of the factors contributing to his colder than normal forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the US. Over the past several years Dr. Cohen's seasonal forecast based on his proprietary technique has outperformed climate forecasts by more than 40%.

While the Northeast forecast isn't as cold as the memorable winter of 2002-2003, this winter's temperatures will average below normal in that region of the country. Dr. Cohen's forecast also includes population weighted demand forecasts for four additional regions of the country which assist energy suppliers in managing their resources. While consumers are hoping for warmer than normal winter conditions in the Northeast, there will most likely be an increase in energy consumption based on Dr. Cohen's forecast.

About AER Inc. 

Founded in 1977, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. is an award-winning environmental research and consulting company with demonstrated expertise in medium and long range forecasting for the Energy and Financial Markets. In addition to its Lexington, MA headquarters, AER has offices in Omaha, NE; Norman Oklahoma; and San Francisco, CA. For more information, visit our web site at www.aer.com.

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