AER Verifies Winter Seasonal Forecast for Russian Federation

AER Inc., the leading expert in seasonal weather forecasting, announced today that AER’s 2008/2009 winter seasonal forecast for Russia accurately depicted observed winter temperatures, six-months in advance. Released in early October, AER’s sCast forecast for the months of November through March included average monthly minimum temperature and heating degree day forecasts for 81 administrative centers in the Russian Federation. The quality of the forecasts was confirmed last month at a meeting with representatives from forty leading Russian power generation companies who subscribe to the forecast.

One of AER’s key seasonal forecasting predictors is Siberian snow cover. The seasonal forecast discussion released in October specifically mentioned that, “Siberian snow cover has so far been far below normal, and therefore, based on low snow cover extent and other factors, AER is forecasting warm for much of Russia. But even with an overall warm winter, our model is predicting cold periods for parts of Russia. SCast is forecasting an overall cold November in parts of western and Central Russia, as well as a return to colder temperatures in the latter winter months for parts of Eastern Russia.” AER’s sCast model accurately predicted winter temperatures throughout the 81 administrative centers allowing them to plan heating and electricity demand well in advance.

AER’s highly-regarded and validated statistical approach to long range weather forecasting has been used operationally by the energy and financial markets in the U.S. and Europe since 1999. Today reports are issued for the U.S., Europe, Asia and the Russian Federation.

“Our seasonal forecasts have been highly regarded by the energy sector in the U.S. and now in Russia,” said Cecilia Sze, AER’s President and CEO. “Our clients use our suite of seasonal weather forecasts to make highly profitable planning decisions and we are pleased that the forecast was well received by the Russian energy sector this past winter.”

About AER
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (www.aer.com), established in 1977, is a Nobel Prize winning environmental research, development and consulting company. AER provides quantitative probabilistic medium range, seasonal and hurricane forecasts, as well as, consultation to support trading and planning decisions in the energy and financial markets. AER scientists are recognized experts in climate, hurricane, emissions and weather forecasting. In addition to its headquarters in Lexington, MA, AER has offices in Omaha, NE, Norman, OK, Suffolk, VA, and San Francisco, CA.

Contacts: 

AER, Inc.
Stephen Walker, +1 781-761-2312
Marketing Communications
swalker@aer.com