Demonstrating the space weather nowcasting and forecasting capabilities of the Phenomena-Based Environmental Effects Predictor (PBEEP)

Author: James Martin Griffin, Ryan B. Aschbrenner, Thomas Connor, Hilary E. "Ned" Snell and William Gallery
Date: 
January 14, 2009
Type: 
Presentation
Venue: 
AMS 89th Annual Meeting – Sixth Symposium on Space Weather
Citation: 

Griffin, J. M., R. Aschbrenner, T. Connor, W. Gallery, and H. E. Snell, “Demonstrating the space weather nowcasting and forecasting capabilities of the Phenomena-Based Environmental Effects Predictor (PBEEP)” presented at AMS 89th Annual Meeting – Sixth Symposium on Space Weather, Jan, 2009

Using satellite measurements and other data sources, we have collected, cataloged, and quantified the occurrence, intensity, duration, location, and extent of environmental effects due to specific phenomena within the atmosphere. The resulting knowledge base has allowed us to develop a library of modules that make use of climatology and microphysical models to systematically nowcast and forecast phenomenological-based stressing events such as auroral dosing, stratospheric warming, polar mesospheric clouds formation, and high-altitude ozone variability. This presentation will first provide satellite measurement and other truth data to demonstrate the significant impact that these phenomena have on the space environment and the importance of accounting for their role in space weather. Then, the presentation will demonstrate how the outputs of the software modules compare qualitatively to the measurements. From these comparisons, it will be shown that the modules provide the means to automatically and systematically realize a more reasonable characterization of the space weather effects for nowcasting and forecasting purposes.