Lexington, Mass., 18 November 2002 – Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER Inc.), a leader in atmospheric sciences issued a surprising winter forecast of a colder than normal December, January, and February in the eastern US and warm in the western US despite the evolving El Nino conditions in the Pacific In contrast, the National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting a warm winter in the northern half of the US with normal temperatures in the south

Dr. Judah Cohen, AER Staff Scientist, is the developer of a forecast model that considers four primary signals and correlates them to 3-month seasonal temperatures in United States and Europe. The four signals are Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure, air temperature, and atmospheric energy flux. In general, all of these signals need to be in agreement to produce a seasonal forecast of high confidence; however at this point, Dr. Cohen finds this year’s pattern less conclusive with Siberian snow cover and sea level pressure indicating a cold winter, while the other two signals are less definitive. Additionally, it is uncertain how these conditions will interact with the moderate El Nino pattern predicted for this winter which is the primary reason the NWS is forecasting a warm winter. Due to the high uncertainty, Dr. Cohen notes that this year’s forecast requires continuous monitoring and the seasonal forecast of a cold eastern US with a warm western region will be updated.

About AER Inc. – Established in 1977, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER Inc.) is a world-renowned research and development facility for cutting edge technology. AER Inc.’s expertise ranges from breakthrough work in weather prediction, meteorology and atmospheric modeling to air quality and risk assessment for a diversity of clients including NASA, Department of Energy, Hong Kong Government, NOAA and Fidelity Investments. With the top minds in research and industry experts in Energy and Utilities, Finance, and Government, AER Inc.’s applications have fundamentally impacted the way businesses, researchers, and national governments interpret the Earth around us. Headquartered in Lexington, MA, AER has offices in San Francisco, CA, and Omaha, NE.