Forecasting the Impact of Atmospheric Releases from industrial pollution to terrorist activities
Today more than ever it is critical to be able to predict the location and concentration of pollutants or toxic substances released accidentally or purposefully in the atmosphere. Tools such as HPAC, SCIPUFF, CMAQ, STILT and others are designed for this purpose. These models can be used in real time and for planning purposes. The quality of their forecasts is limited by knowledge of the initial release and the meteorological (MET) parameters, principally winds and stability. AER scientists use these models routinely for AQ studies. As a result of research for DTRA, NASA and other agencies AER has developed and continues to develop improved MET data for these models. Improved interfaces that capture the most appropriate scales and variability of the winds and other MET parameters are based on years of experience with NWP models and ensemble techniques.
Research at AER focuses on improving the MET data input to dispersion models.
Our Experts:
Ross Hoffman
George Modica
Stephen Lowe