Quantifying the Interactions Between Humans and Tropical Cyclones
Scientists at AER have examined hurricane impacts from several directions. Using cross-disciplinary techniques involving leading edge numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, ensemble forecasting concepts and in-house methodologies, researchers have been able to quantify not only the traditional impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on humans but also the consequences of humans, both deliberately and inadvertently, influencing nature itself.
Prior to the devastation of the 2004-2005 US hurricane seasons, AER scientists identified the need for a more quantifiable approach to forecasting wind speed for landfalling hurricanes. As leaders in atmospheric modeling and research, we developed an innovative technique by combining a hurricane intensity model within an ensemble forecast framework. This technique provided a statistically quantifiable distribution of potential outcomes which could then be translated to probabilistic forecasts. Understanding the uncertainty in forecasting such extreme events is of considerable value to the insurance, re-insurance and emergency management industries.
On the other side of the human-nature relationship is work completed by AER under contract to NASA that demonstrated the effects of human influences on hurricanes themselves. A theme of the project was to minimize the risk to coastal population and property by the passage of TCs. Using leading NWP models as a tool, AER performed a sensitivity analysis of TCs to human-induced changes to the storm and its environment. This work, which resulted in several peer-reviewed manuscripts, may be considered as seminal work in quantifying just how humans can judiciously influence their environment for their own benefit.
*Note: Here we use the technical description 'tropical cyclone' to denote the set of rotating tropical weather systems that are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans and typhoons in the western Pacific ocean.
Our Expert: Ross Hoffman