hCast-SR
hCast-SR: Short Range Probabilistic Hurricane Track Forecasts
An Ensemble of Hurricane Track Forecasts for Trading CMEs Hurricane Futures Contracts
Do you trade hurricane futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange? If so, then you need hCast-SR, a short range probabilistic hurricane track forecast designed specifically for trading futures based on the Carvill Hurricane Index. hCast-SR provides the most likely hurricane track and the probability for making landfall in five specific regions: Gulf Coast, Florida, Atlantic Coast, Northern Atlantic Coast and Eastern US. hCast-SR provides traders with the probabilistic forecast for each region based on an ensemble of several leading track forecast models. For ease of use, hCast-SR forecasts are presented in a CHI compatible format so traders can effortlessly monitor the projected value of their CHI contract as the hurricane develops and approaches landfall. The end result--- buy/sell decisions are that much easier.
Hurricane experts at AER analyze, weight, and statistically process an ensemble of tropical forecasts from the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC), UK Met Office (UKMO), European Center for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), and the Navys Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). Also provided are the Regional Probability Density Functions plots based on the CHI that rank all hurricanes with predicted landfall within 100mn of the coast. Plots are segregated by coastline region and updated 4 times daily.
Our Expert: Dr. Thomas Nehrkorn