Early season snow cover remains the single most skillful predictor of the winter AO/NAO. But even snow cover has its limitations in predicting the winter AO/NAO. In an effort to better understand how and when snow cover is important in the development of large-scale anomaly patterns associated with the AO/NAO, AER scientists have embarked on a new effort to better understand the underlying dynamics driving winter AO/NAO variability. Preliminary analysis shows that recognition of the of the two paradigm evolution of the anomaly pattern associated with the AO/NAO allows for more accurate seasonal prediction and finer temporal and spatial resolution than previously considered. For well over six years, models based on our research have been used to provide real-time long range and seasonal forecasts to commercial markets. Our forecasts have performed considerably better than those forecasts that are solely dependent on ocean temperatures (link to sCast). In recognition of the contribution to improved understanding of climate variability and the success of the real-time forecasts, NSF has highlighted our accomplishments on their web site http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/index.jsp
Broadening our climate research interests, AER scientists are now studying other boundary forcings, including the ocean surface and sea-ice. In addition, we continue to study hemispheric, and even global, climate trends and climate change. AERŐs studies are particularly relevant to the debate on the role of natural variability versus anthropogenic forcing in global warming. If global warming can be shown to be strongly dependent on a natural mode of the atmosphere, it obscures its attribution to anthropogenic forcing. AER results to date do not support claims that the major mode of atmospheric variability is in a robust positive trend, or that it is contributing in a consistent manner to the global warming trend.
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