Publish Date: October 14, 2015
Article Source: The Washington Post: Capital Weather Gang blog
Article Link: www.aer.com/news-events/in-the-news/2015/expert-ramp-siberian-snow-cover-hints-cold-winter-eastern-us
Will this coming winter be colder than normal?
"The meteorologist who discovered [the winter seasonal forecast and Siberian snow cover] relationship, Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, says this October’s Siberian snow cover is off to a fast start, which may portend another cold winter for the East...When Siberian autumn snow is expansive and increases quickly, it tends to favor a cold winter in the East; whereas, when it’s scarce, a mild winter is more likely."
Last year's forecast: incredibly accurate.
"Based on the snow cover behavior, Cohen forecast a colder than normal winter for the eastern U.S. He was not only right that the winter would be a cold one, but also accurately forecast that the second half of winter would be significantly colder than the first half.
"Cohen shared his 2014-2015 winter temperature forecast ... compared to what actually happened (below left) and the match is remarkable. “As far as seasonal forecasts go, that is incredibly accurate with the gross features correct and differences only in the details.”
- See comparison images and read the full article "Expert: Ramp-up in Siberian snow cover hints at cold winter for eastern U.S." in The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog.
Learn more about AER's winter seasonal forecast and the underlying science.