Venue: American Meteorological Society
Hoffman, R. N., K. Emanuel, S. Hopsch, D. Gombos, and T. Nehrkorn. Large ensemble tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, Seattle, Washington, January 2011, abstract submitted 8/2/2010.
Resource File: HofEH+11.pdf
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are inherently difficult to predict. Despite substantial recent improvements in track and to a lesser extent in intensity forecasts, there still remain many challenges. Correctly predicting TC intensity is particularly
difficult, due to small–scale processes that range from fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles, to fluctuations due to storm–scale processes that greatly depend on the track, and interactions with the large scale environment. These interdependencies cause TC forecasts to be probabilistic by nature.