Type: Journal Article
Venue: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Kahler, S.W., E.W. Cliver, and A.G. Ling (2007), Validating the proton prediction system (PPS), Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69, 43, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2006.06.009
Resource Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VHB-4MG6TD3-1&_user=10&_coverDate=02%2F28%2F2007&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_origin=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=749da47ad88a88550ab34eed9e0be4a8&searchtype=a
The proton prediction system (PPS) is a program developed at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to predict solar energetic (E>5MeV) proton (SEP) intensities at 1 AU following solar flares. It is based on average observed SEP intensity-time profiles, peak intensities, and event durations. The input parameters are solar flare peak or time-integrated X-ray or radio fluxes and their times of onsets and maxima, and solar flare locations. We do a limited validation of the PPS using 78 GOES solar X-ray flares of peak intensity greater-or-equal,M5 with well associated Hα flare locations. Predicted peak proton intensities J((E>10MeV)) and event onset and rise times are compared with SEP events observed by GOES. We also select all GOES E>10MeV SEP events above 10 proton flux units (pfu) during the same time period to compare with those predicted by the PPS. With our M5 X-ray flare threshold the PPS yields approximately equal numbers of correct predictions, false predictions, and missed 10-pfu SEP events.