Agust 26, 2024
Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Polar Vortex (PV). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns.
During the winter schedule the blog is updated once every week. Snow accumulation forecasts replace precipitation forecasts. Also, there is renewed emphasis on ice and snow boundary conditions and their influence on hemispheric weather. In late Spring, we transition to a spring/summer schedule, which is once every two weeks. Snow accumulation forecasts will be replaced by precipitation forecasts. Also, there will be less emphasis on ice and snow boundary conditions and their influence on hemispheric weather
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The AO/PV blog is partially supported by NSF grant AGS: 1657748.
Summary
- The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to mostly trend negative the next two weeks as pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic are currently mostly negative and are predicted to become increasingly positive next week. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently positive with negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across Greenland and the NAO is predicted to persist negative the next two weeks as pressure/geopotential height anomalies are predicted to remain negative to neutral across Greenland also for the foreseeable future.
- Over the next two weeks general troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Greenland will support ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies across much of Europe. This pattern will support the next two weeks normal to above normal temperatures across much of Europe including the United Kingdom (UK).
- The general pattern predicted for Asia the next two weeks is ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered over Eastern Europe forcing troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies first across Central Asia and then expanding into Western Siberia while ridging centered in the Laptev Sea will force troughing over Northeastern Siberia. This pattern favors the next two weeks normal to above normal temperatures across much of Asia centered on Northwestern China with normal to below normal temperatures across Northeastern Siberia and Central Asia initially centered in Kazakhstan and then expanding into Western Siberia.
- This week North America is predicted to be dominated by troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in western North America forcing ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies across eastern North America. Then next week ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies will return to western North America forcing troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in mostly the Eastern United States (US) this week and Alaska next week. This pattern favors normal to below normal temperatures across Alaska, Western Canda and the Western US with normal to above normal temperatures across Eastern Canada and the Eastern US this week. Then next week normal to below normal temperatures will spread across the Eastern US and even Eastern Canada while normal to above normal temperatures spread across Alaska, Western Canada and the Western US next week.
- In the Impacts section I discuss the summer pattern across the Northern Hemisphere (NH).
Plain Language Summary