Our hurricane and tropical cyclone research and operational services leverage the strongest technical skills in academia, federal laboraties and operations. Scientists at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) collaborate with the world's leading authorities on hurricanes.
Our scientific research and operational services are conducted for government agencies and commercial clients and focus in several areas including:
Our experts in hurricanes and tropical meteorology have extensive experience in developing and applying numerical modeling and data assimilation codes to simulations and forecasting of hurricanes. Some recent examples include mesoscale hurricane simulations, and the use of scatterometer data in the ECMWF’s forecasts of tropical cyclones.
We bring deep knowledge through developing and applying mesoscale modeling and data assimilation codes, for applications ranging from operational real-time weather forecasting, air quality modeling and weather modification research. AER is currently collaborating with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) on the development of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) components of a four-dimensional variational analysis (4dvar) data assimilation system. As part of a project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, AER has implemented our improved shortwave and longwave RRTMG radiation package in the WRF model.
In addition, AER maintains an extensive, searchable climate reanalysis database that includes the capability to run retrospective WRF simulations to downscale the large-scale reanalysis datasets.
AER pioneered some of the concepts underlying ensemble forecasting techniques over 25 years ago, and has continued research in ensemble techniques for probabilistic forecasts.
An estimate of increases in storm surge risk to property from sea level rise in the first half of the twenty-first century
Sensitivity of tropical cyclone surge risk to changes in sea level and sea surface temperature
Analysis of African Easterly Wave Structures and Their Role in Influencing Tropical Cyclogenesis
WRF-based hurricane simulation in the Environmental Data Cube Support System
Providing real-time ensemble-based forecasts of hurricane risk to commercial customers
West African Storm Tracks and Their Relationship to Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
The response of damaging winds of a simulated tropical cyclone to finite amplitude perturbations of different variables
Analysis of extreme low pressure events like hurricanes and extra-tropical storms thanks to altimetry
Impact of NSCAT Winds on Tropical Cyclones in the ECMWF 4DVAR Assimilation System
A numerical study of the effects of GOES-8 cloud-cleared brightness temperatures on the prediction of Hurricane Felix