The AER Seasonal Forecast is the most skilled and comprehensive seasonal forecasting service in the industry.
For the fourth consecutive year, the AER heating demand forecast was correct! No one else produces these skillful predictions.
Improve Your Financial Performance with Early and Accurate Energy Demand Guidance
Investors and energy producers turn to seasonal temperature forecasts from Atmospheric and Environmental Research to improve the performance of their energy-focused investments.
AER’s accurate seasonal forecasts help portfolio managers maximize returns, hedge downside risks and develop superior investment strategies.
When winter’s on the horizon, investors and energy traders know there’s no substitute for an accurate seasonal forecast and subseasonal updates.
We introduced enhanced techniques to deliver the winter forecast earlier in the season starting autumn 2011.
AER's winter forecast has provided unique, accurate insight for four years running, and we’re highly confident in our physically-based approach for the upcoming season. We've demonstrated exceptional statistical skill in our October forecast.
AER was the only firm that correctly predicted the cold winter of 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 (see maps on this webpage), and the warm winter of 2011-2012. We're pleased to share verification of AER's forecast skill in prior years to qualified energy investors and fund managers; request forecast skill here.
AER clients were significantly better positioned to maximize their weather impacted investments, well ahead of the rest of the market.
The high skill of the Seasonal Forecast is based on over a decade of extensive atmospheric research.
Unlike other seasonal weather forecasts, the AER winter forecast uses a unique initialization scheme that analyzes snow cover in Siberia in addition to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and warming trends. AER has shown that Siberian snow cover can be use to predict the strength of the polar vortex, which is highly correlated with the frequency of Arctic outbreaks in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
High-Efficiency Techniques to Provide Project Developers and Investors with 30-year Offshore Wind Data
—Kyle Beatty, VP of Business Solutions, Bryan Woods, Staff Scientist, Thomas Nehrkorn, Senior Staff Scientist, at EnergyOcean International 2012 Conference, June 20, 2012
AER’s Seasonal Forecast produces amazingly accurate winter outlook
—Washington Post; Capital Weather Gang
Learn how Mutual Fund managers use our research
—The Rise of the Climate Consultant: As the SEC asks for climate risk disclosure, an industry blooms, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, June 6, 2010.
—Environmental Research Letters Highlights of 2012
A New Index for More Accurate Winter Predictions
—Cohen and Jones, in Geophysical Research Letters
AER Seasonal Forecast accuracy news
—New York Times, Forbes, TIME highlights, Dec. 2010 - April 2011.
Bundle Up; Op Ed in New York Times
—By Judah Cohen, AER Director of Seasonal Forecasting, Dec. 25, 2010.