Seasonal Forecast

The AER Seasonal Forecast is the most skilled and comprehensive seasonal forecasting service in the industry.

For the fourth consecutive year, the AER heating demand forecast was correct! No one else produces these skillful predictions.

Improve Your Financial Performance with Early and Accurate Energy Demand Guidance

Investors and energy producers turn to seasonal temperature forecasts from Atmospheric and Environmental Research to improve the performance of their energy-focused investments.

AER’s accurate seasonal forecasts help portfolio managers maximize returns, hedge downside risks and develop superior investment strategies.

The Skilled Forecast You Can’t Afford to Ignore

When winter’s on the horizon, investors and energy traders know there’s no substitute for an accurate seasonal forecast and subseasonal updates.

  • Our proprietary model consistently outperforms the government and other providers of seasonal temperature forecasts.
  • We introduced enhanced techniques to deliver the winter forecast earlier in the season starting autumn 2011.

  • AER provides advisory consultations whenever key turning points are anticipated or observed. These enable our clients to take positions in advance of other investors.

The Result

AER's winter forecast has provided unique, accurate insight for four years running, and we’re highly confident in our physically-based approach for the upcoming season. We've demonstrated exceptional statistical skill in our October forecast.

AER was the only firm that correctly predicted the cold winter of 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 (see maps on this webpage), and the warm winter of 2011-2012. We're pleased to share verification of AER's forecast skill in prior years to qualified energy investors and fund managers; request forecast skill here.

AER clients were significantly better positioned to maximize their weather impacted investments, well ahead of the rest of the market.

AER Seasonal Forecast map winter 2010-2011

Seasonal Forecast Service Overview

  • Detailed regional forecasts of Heating- and Cooling- Degree Day (HDD and CDD)
  • Population-weighted for electricity, gas and oil
  • 6-month seasonal forecast for the U.S. and the Northern Hemisphere
  • Extensive temperature and precipitation information in both tabular and map formats, making these seasonal forecasts easy to understand
  • Download the brochure

Scientific Research Underlying the Skill of the AER Seasonal Forecast

The high skill of the Seasonal Forecast is based on over a decade of extensive atmospheric research.

Unlike other seasonal weather forecasts, the AER winter forecast uses a unique initialization scheme that analyzes snow cover in Siberia in addition to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and warming trends. AER has shown that Siberian snow cover can be use to predict the strength of the polar vortex, which is highly correlated with the frequency of Arctic outbreaks in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Seasonal Forecast

AER Seasonal Forecast News:

High-Efficiency Techniques to Provide Project Developers and Investors with 30-year Offshore Wind Data
—Kyle Beatty, VP of Business Solutions, Bryan Woods, Staff Scientist, Thomas Nehrkorn, Senior Staff Scientist, at EnergyOcean International 2012 Conference, June 20, 2012

Chesapeake Energy integrates AER technology into its Seasonal Forecast process
—Press release

AER Forecast Proves Exceptionally Accurate for 2013 U.S. Heating Demand
—Press release

AER’s Seasonal Forecast produces amazingly accurate winter outlook
—Washington Post; Capital Weather Gang

Learn how Mutual Fund managers use our research
—The Rise of the Climate Consultant: As the SEC asks for climate risk disclosure, an industry blooms, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, June 6, 2010.

AER's Seasonal Forecast Team awarded Best Article of 2012 by Environmental Research Letters

—Environmental Research Letters Highlights of 2012

A New Index for More Accurate Winter Predictions
—Cohen and Jones, in Geophysical Research Letters

AER Seasonal Forecast accuracy news
New York Times, Forbes, TIME highlights, Dec. 2010 - April 2011.

Bundle Up; Op Ed in New York Times
—By Judah Cohen, AER Director of Seasonal Forecasting, Dec. 25, 2010.